Our fault or Mother Nature?

In this National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) article, 'Climate change or variability: what rules the Arctic sea ice?' the strongest point of the global warming naysayers is briefly examined.

Since satellite measurements started in 1979, the Arctic sea ice has declined by 30%. However, as shown in the video in a few posts earlier, extent of sea ice varies on a year to year basis. The biggest question for scientists is how much of this variation and decrease in sea ice can be attributed to human activities and to natural variability. This question is very important to the individual, the governments and also corporations since the answer to this question will have very far reaching and permanent effects. If we're truly in the Anthropocene, then the billions of dollars pumped into inventions, research, infrastructure etc will be justified. Climate change talks between countries, like the recent Durban conference, will truly have purpose. Buying hybrid cars, changing our lifestyle to become vegetarians, changing light bulbs to eco-friendly ones etc, will be more logical to us to prolong our survival. 

However, we must be aware that every dollar that goes into green research, green governmentality, green lifestyle, is a dollar taken away from increasing economic growth immediately. The economic benefits of a green world will come much much later. They will come, but can we afford to wait for it? In this current economic atmosphere, can we afford reckless spending if the answer to the above question is no?

Through modelling of climate change, scientists are studying the combination of impacts of factors like increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the dynamic interaction of ocean, land and atmosphere and its effect on sea ice extent. According to scientists Jennifer Kay, 'Models let us replay the 20th century multiple times to quantify the relative contributions of climate variability and greenhouse gas increases to observed and modeled hemispheric sea ice trends'. But because of many gaps in our knowledge of the environment, these models have assumptions input in them in order to work.

So for now, we do not have a definite answer to 'how much are we to blame for climate change'. However, we do know that if we do not do something to stop further climate change, the poles will lose their ice cover.